Citi analyst predicts Kindle to be an even bigger hit

Original Post from August 12th 2008.

Here is another post predicting the future size of the Kindle business for Amazon, based on a few scanty sales rumors and bullishness.

This one is from Silicon Alley Insider reporting on Citi analyst Mark Mahaney (or was it Bark Baloney?) who predicts it will be a $1B business by 2010 (which confusingly they call "next year"), representing almost 4% of total Amazon revenue.

They show his calculations starting with original iPod sales numbers and a modified adoption rate for this device (for reasons they explain) and take it from there. For 2010 (the third year in their calculations) the device revenue and eBook (actually including newspapers and magazines?) sales revenue are about 50/50, although device revene recogniton is delayed and amortized over two years...

One, $10, book per device per month might turn out to be a little on the high side, but could be met if you count a few lower cost newspapers and magazines in the same month.